Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Madison Keys vs Alina Korneeva
Team pages: Madison Keys · Alina Korneeva
Prediction summary
Winner
Madison Keys
Alina Korneeva
Estimated games
20.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Madison Keys
6-4 (W-L)
Alina Korneeva
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madison Keys 1543 · Alina Korneeva 1576
| Madison Keys | Alina Korneeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Madison Keys makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Madison Keys | Alina Korneeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.1 | 10.8-8 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 35.5% | 63.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1.1
Over 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madison Keys
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alina Korneeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Iva Jovic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/08 | Mary Stoiana WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Maria Sakkari WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Tereza Valentova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Ann Li WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Aoi Ito WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Kimberly Birrell Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madison Keys vs Alina Korneeva?
Our model gives 60% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.