Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Elsa Jacquemot vs Marie Bouzkova
Team pages: Elsa Jacquemot · Marie Bouzkova
Prediction summary
Winner
Elsa Jacquemot
Marie Bouzkova
Estimated games
20.7Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elsa Jacquemot
3-7 (W-L)
Marie Bouzkova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elsa Jacquemot
1–1
Marie Bouzkova
(2 last)
- 19 Mar0-2 4-12L
- 25 Aug2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elsa Jacquemot 1412 · Marie Bouzkova 1545
| Elsa Jacquemot | Marie Bouzkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Bouzkova (rating 1412 vs 1545).
- Marie Bouzkova is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Elsa Jacquemot makes many double faults (4.4/match).
- Note: Marie Bouzkova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Elsa Jacquemot | Marie Bouzkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (3) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.6 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.4-11.6 | 12.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 57.8% | 67% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.2
Over 19.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Elsa Jacquemot 1 – 1 Marie Bouzkova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elsa Jacquemot 1–1 Marie Bouzkova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/08/25 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elsa Jacquemot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Tessa Johanna Brockmann WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Clara Burel WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Ilinca D Amariei WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Aurora Zantedeschi WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Marie Bouzkova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Iva Jovic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/07 | Tereza Valentova WTA Prague · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 02/07 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elsa Jacquemot vs Marie Bouzkova?
Our model gives 77% to Marie Bouzkova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.