Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Xiyu Wang
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Xiyu Wang
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Xiyu Wang
Estimated games
21.1Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Xiyu Wang
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
2–0
Xiyu Wang
(2 last)
- 30 Jul2-0 12-7W
- 25 Apr2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1634 · Xiyu Wang 1540
| Iga Swiatek | Xiyu Wang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1634 vs 1540).
- Iga Swiatek is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 2–0 Xiyu Wang (2).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Xiyu Wang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-6.9 | 12.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 1 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 58.1% | 70.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +3.6
Over 17.5: 74% · 2.00
Under 17.5: 26% · 1.72
H2H · Iga Swiatek 2 – 0 Xiyu Wang (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 2–0 Xiyu Wang
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/24 Olympics 2024 - Women | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/04/24 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Xiyu Wang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/08 | Ena Koike WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Madison Keys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Bianca Andreescu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Caty McNally WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Hanyu Guo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Mayar Sherif WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Xiyu Wang?
Our model gives 79% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.