Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Zeynep Sonmez vs Coco Gauff
Team pages: Zeynep Sonmez · Coco Gauff
Prediction summary
Winner
Zeynep Sonmez
Coco Gauff
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Zeynep Sonmez
4-6 (W-L)
Coco Gauff
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zeynep Sonmez 1508 · Coco Gauff 1654
| Zeynep Sonmez | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 7% | 93% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coco Gauff (rating 1508 vs 1654).
- Coco Gauff is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Zeynep Sonmez | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-13.1 | 12.3-7.1 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 58.1% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 52.7% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +5
Over 17.5: 81% · 1.90
Under 17.5: 19% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zeynep Sonmez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 05/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Rebecca Marino WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Cadence Brace WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Ann Li Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Harriet Dart WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Ann Li WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 09/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Kayla Day WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zeynep Sonmez vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 82% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.