Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa
Team pages: Daria Kasatkina · Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daria Kasatkina
3–3
Paula Badosa
(6 last)
- 31 May2-0 13-6W
- 05 Jul1-2 16-17L
- 18 Apr0-2 2-12L
- 07 Aug2-0 12-6W
- 12 May2-0 12-8W
- 14 Jan0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1493 · Paula Badosa 1627
| Daria Kasatkina | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1493 vs 1627).
- Paula Badosa is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (8.8/match).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.5/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.9 | 13.8-10.4 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 8.8 | 6.5 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 57% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.6
Over 21.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 32% · 1.83
H2H · Daria Kasatkina 3 – 3 Paula Badosa (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Kasatkina 3–3 Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/25 French Open Women | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon Women | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/04/23 WTA Stuttgart | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/08/22 WTA San Jose | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/05/22 WTA Rome | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/01/22 WTA Sydney | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Mingge Xu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 64% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.