Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Sara Bejlek vs Cristina Bucsa
Team pages: Sara Bejlek · Cristina Bucsa
Prediction summary
Winner
Sara Bejlek
Cristina Bucsa
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sara Bejlek
5-5 (W-L)
Cristina Bucsa
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sara Bejlek 1577 · Cristina Bucsa 1448
| Sara Bejlek | Cristina Bucsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sara Bejlek (rating 1577 vs 1448).
- Sara Bejlek is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Cristina Bucsa makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sara Bejlek | Cristina Bucsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.9 | 10.8-13.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 60.1% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.8
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sara Bejlek
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Madison Keys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 20/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 16/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Cristina Bucsa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Susan Bandecchi French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Shuai Zhang WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 07/05 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/04 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sara Bejlek vs Cristina Bucsa?
Our model gives 71% to Sara Bejlek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.