Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Lilli Tagger vs Tamara Korpatsch
Team pages: Lilli Tagger · Tamara Korpatsch
Prediction summary
Winner
Lilli Tagger
Tamara Korpatsch
Estimated games
20.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lilli Tagger
6-4 (W-L)
Tamara Korpatsch
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lilli Tagger
2–0
Tamara Korpatsch
(2 last)
- 31 Oct2-0 12-7W
- 08 Aug2-0 12-2W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lilli Tagger 1566 · Tamara Korpatsch 1483
| Lilli Tagger | Tamara Korpatsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lilli Tagger (rating 1566 vs 1483).
- Lilli Tagger dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 48.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Lilli Tagger 2–0 Tamara Korpatsch (2).
- Note: Tamara Korpatsch makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Lilli Tagger | Tamara Korpatsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.8 | 9.3-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 59.3% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.1
Over 19.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Lilli Tagger 2 – 0 Tamara Korpatsch (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lilli Tagger 2–0 Tamara Korpatsch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/25 WTA Jiujiang | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/08/25 ITF W75 Amstetten | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lilli Tagger
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Robin Montgomery WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Lin Zhu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Daria Snigur WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 24/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Xinyu Gao WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Tamara Korpatsch
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Iva Jovic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Maya Joint WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Anna Bondar WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/07 | Julia Stusek WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Linea Bajraliu WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lilli Tagger vs Tamara Korpatsch?
Our model gives 71% to Lilli Tagger, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.