Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Elina Svitolina vs Solana Sierra
Team pages: Elina Svitolina · Solana Sierra
Prediction summary
Winner
Elina Svitolina
Solana Sierra
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elina Svitolina
3-7 (W-L)
Solana Sierra
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elina Svitolina 1573 · Solana Sierra 1463
| Elina Svitolina | Solana Sierra | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elina Svitolina (rating 1573 vs 1463).
- Elina Svitolina is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Elina Svitolina makes many double faults (5/match).
- Note: Solana Sierra makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Elina Svitolina | Solana Sierra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.5 | 11.9-13.3 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 5 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 50.9% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4.8
Over 18.5: 80% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 20% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elina Svitolina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Daria Snigur Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Solana Sierra
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Aoi Ito WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tatiana Prozorova WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/06 | Anna Bondar Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 20/06 | Ella Seidel WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/06 | Caty McNally WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Lois Boisson WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elina Svitolina vs Solana Sierra?
Our model gives 79% to Elina Svitolina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.