Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin
Team pages: Venus Williams · Sofia Kenin
Prediction summary
Winner
Venus Williams
Sofia Kenin
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Venus Williams
1-9 (W-L)
Sofia Kenin
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Venus Williams 1371 · Sofia Kenin 1459
| Venus Williams | Sofia Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sofia Kenin (rating 1371 vs 1459).
- Sofia Kenin is in better form: 30% recent wins.
- Note: Venus Williams makes many double faults (5/match).
- Note: Sofia Kenin makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Venus Williams | Sofia Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 0% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (8) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.3-2 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-13.9 | 10.6-13.1 |
| Aces | 3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 5 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.6% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 36.8% | 52% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.7
Over 20.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 38% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Venus Williams
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/04 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/03 | Francesca Jones WTA Miami · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 05/03 | Diane Parry WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Austin · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/01 | Olga Danilovic Australian Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/01 | Tatjana Maria WTA Hobart · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Sofia Kenin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 15/08 | Eva Lys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Emma Navarro WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Petra Marcinko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin?
Our model gives 73% to Sofia Kenin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.