Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Sloane Stephens vs Clara Tauson
Team pages: Sloane Stephens · Clara Tauson
Prediction summary
Winner
Sloane Stephens
Clara Tauson
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sloane Stephens
6-4 (W-L)
Clara Tauson
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sloane Stephens 1508 · Clara Tauson 1527
| Sloane Stephens | Clara Tauson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Clara Tauson dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Note: Clara Tauson makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Sloane Stephens | Clara Tauson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-11 | 12.7-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.8
Over 21.5: 56% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 44% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sloane Stephens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Sinja Kraus WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Belinda Bencic WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Solana Sierra WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Harriet Dart WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Renata Zarazua W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Clara Tauson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 18/08 | Linda Noskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Peyton Stearns WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 05/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 17/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Miriana Tona WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Nao Hibino WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sloane Stephens vs Clara Tauson?
Our model gives 62% to Clara Tauson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.