Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Karolina Pliskova
Team pages: Hanne Vandewinkel · Karolina Pliskova
Prediction summary
Winner
Hanne Vandewinkel
Karolina Pliskova
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hanne Vandewinkel
6-4 (W-L)
Karolina Pliskova
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hanne Vandewinkel 1552 · Karolina Pliskova 1497
| Hanne Vandewinkel | Karolina Pliskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanne Vandewinkel (rating 1552 vs 1497).
- Hanne Vandewinkel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Hanne Vandewinkel makes many double faults (6.1/match).
- Note: Karolina Pliskova makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Hanne Vandewinkel | Karolina Pliskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-8.9 | 9.1-11.2 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 60.1% |
| Break % | 59.9% | 51.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.6
Over 22.5: 39% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 61% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hanne Vandewinkel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/08 | Akasha Urhobo WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Anastasia Zakharova W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/08 | Reese Brantmeier W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Madison Sieg W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/08 | Madison Brengle W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 18/07 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Karolina Pliskova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Iga Swiatek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Tereza Valentova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Caty McNally WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Sara Bejlek WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hanne Vandewinkel vs Karolina Pliskova?
Our model gives 54% to Hanne Vandewinkel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.