Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Maja Chwalinska vs Taylor Townsend
Team pages: Maja Chwalinska · Taylor Townsend
Prediction summary
Winner
Maja Chwalinska
Taylor Townsend
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maja Chwalinska
6-4 (W-L)
Taylor Townsend
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maja Chwalinska 1482 · Taylor Townsend 1504
| Maja Chwalinska | Taylor Townsend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Maja Chwalinska | Taylor Townsend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.7 | 11-12.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.1% | 64.5% |
| Break % | 54.7% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 48% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maja Chwalinska
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Alycia Parks WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/06 | Anna Kalinskaya French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/06 | Diane Parry French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Maria Sakkari French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Taylor Townsend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Belinda Bencic WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 05/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Iga Swiatek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 21/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Martina Trevisan WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Coco Gauff French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Iva Jovic WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maja Chwalinska vs Taylor Townsend?
Our model gives 61% to Taylor Townsend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.