Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1617 · Elena-Gabriela Ruse 1531
| Jessica Pegula | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1617 vs 1531).
- Note: Elena-Gabriela Ruse makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.1 | 10.3-8.5 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 60% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.3
Over 19.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 41% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Magda Linette WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Peyton Stearns WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 14/07 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Townsend WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Elena-Gabriela Ruse?
Our model gives 74% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.