Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko
Team pages: Tatjana Maria · Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Tatjana Maria
Jelena Ostapenko
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tatjana Maria
8-2 (W-L)
Jelena Ostapenko
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tatjana Maria
1–0
Jelena Ostapenko
(1 last)
- 03 Jul2-1 19-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tatjana Maria 1573 · Jelena Ostapenko 1543
| Tatjana Maria | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Tatjana Maria 1–0 Jelena Ostapenko (1).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Tatjana Maria | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (4) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-6.9 | 10.7-9 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 7.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 55.4% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.7
Over 22.5: 38% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 62% · 1.83
H2H · Tatjana Maria 1 – 0 Jelena Ostapenko (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tatjana Maria 1–0 Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/22 Wimbledon Women | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tatjana Maria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Dayana Yastremska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Caty McNally WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Isabella Marton WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Renata Zarazua WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Talia Gibson WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/07 | Katie Volynets WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/07 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/07 | Katherine Sebov WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Ella Seidel French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 53% to Jelena Ostapenko, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.