Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Veronika Erjavec
Team pages: Jasmine Paolini · Veronika Erjavec
Prediction summary
Winner
Jasmine Paolini
Veronika Erjavec
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jasmine Paolini
6-4 (W-L)
Veronika Erjavec
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jasmine Paolini 1531 · Veronika Erjavec 1462
| Jasmine Paolini | Veronika Erjavec | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jasmine Paolini (rating 1531 vs 1462).
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Veronika Erjavec | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.8 | 11.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 59.7% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 55.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.8
Over 19.5: 80% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 20% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Viktorija Golubic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Solana Sierra French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Dayana Yastremska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Elise Mertens WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 07/05 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Veronika Erjavec
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Julia Grabher WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 11/08 | Mary Stoiana WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Julia Grabher WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Gina Feistel WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Mona Barthel WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Victoria Bosio WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Leolia Jeanjean Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Veronika Erjavec?
Our model gives 73% to Jasmine Paolini, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.