Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: McCartney Kessler vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: McCartney Kessler · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
McCartney Kessler
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
McCartney Kessler
4-6 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
McCartney Kessler
0–1
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(1 last)
- 17 Oct0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · McCartney Kessler 1457 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1533
| McCartney Kessler | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterina Alexandrova (rating 1457 vs 1533).
- Ekaterina Alexandrova dominates on serve: 6 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: McCartney Kessler 0–1 Ekaterina Alexandrova (1).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| McCartney Kessler | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.1-10.1 | 13.8-13.1 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 66% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 40.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.6
Over 21.5: 54% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 46% · 1.90
H2H · McCartney Kessler 0 – 1 Ekaterina Alexandrova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · McCartney Kessler 0–1 Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/25 WTA Ningbo | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
McCartney Kessler
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Caty McNally WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 03/08 | Cadence Brace WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Renata Zarazua WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Oleksandra Oliynykova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 25/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Katie Volynets WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 06/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Lanlana Tararudee Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Panna Udvardy Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in McCartney Kessler vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 63% to Ekaterina Alexandrova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.