Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Camila Osorio
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Maria Camila Osorio
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Maria Camila Osorio
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Maria Camila Osorio
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
2–0
Maria Camila Osorio
(2 last)
- 29 Apr2-0 13-9W
- 02 Jul2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1548 · Maria Camila Osorio 1455
| Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Camila Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1548 vs 1455).
- Aryna Sabalenka is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 2–0 Maria Camila Osorio (2).
- Note: Maria Camila Osorio makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Camila Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-8.8 | 9.8-11.4 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 62% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.4
Over 19.5: 60% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 40% · 1.80
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 2 – 0 Maria Camila Osorio (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 2–0 Maria Camila Osorio
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/23 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07/21 Wimbledon Women | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Maria Camila Osorio
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Ann Li WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Storm Hunter WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Simona Waltert Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Anna Kalinskaya French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Camila Osorio?
Our model gives 76% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.