Tennis · US Open Women · 27/08, 19:00
Prediction: Heather Watson vs Harriet Dart
Team pages: Heather Watson · Harriet Dart
Prediction summary
Winner
Heather Watson
Harriet Dart
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Heather Watson
5-5 (W-L)
Harriet Dart
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Heather Watson
2–1
Harriet Dart
(3 last)
- 28 Apr2-1 15-12W
- 16 Mar0-2 10-13L
- 10 Jun2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heather Watson 1525 · Harriet Dart 1531
| Heather Watson | Harriet Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Heather Watson 2–1 Harriet Dart (3).
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Heather Watson | Harriet Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.1 | 11.1-9.8 |
| Aces | 5 | 1 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 64.5% |
| Break % | 52% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.83
H2H · Heather Watson 2 – 1 Harriet Dart (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Heather Watson 2–1 Harriet Dart
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/23 ITF W40 Calvi | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/03/21 WTA Monterrey | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/06/17 ITF Women Surbiton | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heather Watson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Angela Fita Boluda US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 24/08 | Claire Liu US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Tatiana Prozorova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Mayar Sherif Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Beatriz Haddad Maia WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Harriet Dart
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Kristina Penickova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Jordyn Hazelitt US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Peyton Stearns WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Aoi Ito WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 30/07 | Taylah Preston WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Kayla Cross WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Maria Sakkari WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Mina Hodzic WTA Athens · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heather Watson vs Harriet Dart?
Our model gives 52% to Harriet Dart, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.