Tennis · US Open Women · 27/08, 20:00
Prediction: Kristina Liutova vs Martyna Kubka
Team pages: Kristina Liutova · Martyna Kubka
Prediction summary
Winner
Kristina Liutova
Martyna Kubka
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kristina Liutova
6-4 (W-L)
Martyna Kubka
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kristina Liutova 1612 · Martyna Kubka 1564
| Kristina Liutova | Martyna Kubka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kristina Liutova (rating 1612 vs 1564).
- Martyna Kubka dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 45.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Kristina Liutova | Martyna Kubka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-9.9 | 13.5-10.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61.8% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 58.4% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.9
Over 21.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kristina Liutova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Lola Radivojevic US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Tatiana Prozorova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Caty McNally WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/07 | Maya Joint WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 27/07 | Maria Kozyreva WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 04/07 | Lucrezia Stefanini W100 Cary · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Sofia Johnson W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Malaika Rapolu W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Martyna Kubka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Marina Bassols Ribera US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Annika Penickova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Mona Barthel WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Teodora Kostovic WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Kira Pavlova W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Han Shi W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Chloe Noel W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Jimena Gomez W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/07 | Valentina Ryser W35 Don Benito |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kristina Liutova vs Martyna Kubka?
Our model gives 63% to Kristina Liutova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.