Tennis · US Open Women · 27/08, 20:00
Prediction: Francesca Jones vs Joanna Garland
Team pages: Francesca Jones · Joanna Garland
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Jones
Joanna Garland
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Jones
9-1 (W-L)
Joanna Garland
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Jones 1650 · Joanna Garland 1509
| Francesca Jones | Joanna Garland | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Jones (rating 1650 vs 1509).
- Francesca Jones is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Note: Joanna Garland makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Jones | Joanna Garland | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.4 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-7.8 | 11.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 64.2% | 38.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Mona Barthel US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Nuria Brancaccio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Alice Rame WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/07 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Chloe Paquet WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Fiona Ferro WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jennifer Ruggeri WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 23/07 | Miriam Bulgaru WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Darya Astakhova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Joanna Garland
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Priscilla Hon US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Leyre Romero Gormaz US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Celine Naef Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Britt Du Pree WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Angela Fita Boluda W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/05 | Lucie Nguyen Tan W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/05 | Kathinka Von Deichmann French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Jones vs Joanna Garland?
Our model gives 68% to Francesca Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.