Tennis · US Open Women · 28/08, 16:00
Prediction: Mia Ristic vs Himeno Sakatsume
Team pages: Mia Ristic · Himeno Sakatsume
Prediction summary
Winner
Mia Ristic
Himeno Sakatsume
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mia Ristic
6-4 (W-L)
Himeno Sakatsume
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mia Ristic 1619 · Himeno Sakatsume 1503
| Mia Ristic | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mia Ristic (rating 1619 vs 1503).
- Mia Ristic is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mia Ristic | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.6 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-9.8 | 11.1-12.5 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 57.4% |
| Break % | 53% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mia Ristic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Francisca Jorge US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Ayana Akli US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 16/08 | Rositsa Dencheva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Matilde Paoletti W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Lisa Zaar W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Havah Kaur Kaler W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/07 | Laura Samsonova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/07 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Himeno Sakatsume
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Tyra Caterina Grant US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Jazmin Ortenzi US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Fiona Crawley W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Fiona Crawley Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mia Ristic vs Himeno Sakatsume?
Our model gives 51% to Mia Ristic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.