Tennis · US Open Women · 27/08, 16:00
Prediction: Yue Yuan vs Mary Stoiana
Team pages: Yue Yuan · Mary Stoiana
Prediction summary
Winner
Yue Yuan
Mary Stoiana
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yue Yuan
9-1 (W-L)
Mary Stoiana
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yue Yuan 1508 · Mary Stoiana 1531
| Yue Yuan | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Yue Yuan | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.6 | 12.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yue Yuan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Julia Avdeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Hanyu Guo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/08 | Kayla Day WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 11/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Warsaw · Hard |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 03/08 | Alana Smith WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Prague · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Aliona Falei WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Mary Stoiana
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Katie Swan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Harmony Tan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Peyton Stearns WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Julieta Pareja W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Anna Rogers W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yue Yuan vs Mary Stoiana?
Our model gives 57% to Mary Stoiana, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.