Tennis · US Open Women · 27/08, 17:00
Prediction: Polina Iatcenko vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Team pages: Polina Iatcenko · Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Prediction summary
Winner
Polina Iatcenko
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Estimated games
21.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Polina Iatcenko
6-4 (W-L)
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Polina Iatcenko
1–1
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
(2 last)
- 27 Nov2-0 13-7W
- 22 Nov0-2 6-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Polina Iatcenko 1497 · Andrea Lazaro Garcia 1539
| Polina Iatcenko | Andrea Lazaro Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Lazaro Garcia (rating 1497 vs 1539).
- Note: Polina Iatcenko makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Andrea Lazaro Garcia makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Polina Iatcenko | Andrea Lazaro Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10 | 11.3-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 59.1% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.2
Over 22.5: 42% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 58% · 1.80
H2H · Polina Iatcenko 1 – 1 Andrea Lazaro Garcia (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Polina Iatcenko 1–1 Andrea Lazaro Garcia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/24 ITF W35 Lousada | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/11/24 ITF W35 Lousada | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Polina Iatcenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Lucia Bronzetti US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Julie Struplova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/08 | Claire Liu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Iryna Shymanovich W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Vera Zvonareva WTA Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Zhuoxuan Bai Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Leyre Romero Gormaz Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Mai Hontama US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/08 | Elina Avanesyan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Aurora Zantedeschi W75 Leipzig |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Chloe Paquet W75 Leipzig |
2-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 31/07 | Laura Pigossi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Nadia Podoroska W100 Gran Canaria |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 28/07 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Alina Korneeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Nuria Brancaccio Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Julia Grabher WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Polina Iatcenko vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia?
Our model gives 50% to Polina Iatcenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.