Tennis · US Open Women · 26/08, 21:30
Prediction: Katie Swan vs Mary Stoiana
Team pages: Katie Swan · Mary Stoiana
Prediction summary
Winner
Katie Swan
Mary Stoiana
Estimated games
21.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Katie Swan
8-2 (W-L)
Mary Stoiana
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katie Swan 1581 · Mary Stoiana 1521
| Katie Swan | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Katie Swan (rating 1581 vs 1521).
- Katie Swan is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Katie Swan | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-8.2 | 12.3-11 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 49% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 51% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katie Swan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Katrina Scott US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Madison Keys Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Tereza Martincova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/06 | Taylah Preston WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Kyoka Okamura W75 Kurume · ~Carpet |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/05 | Mei Yamaguchi W75 Kurume · ~Carpet |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/05 | Sara Saito W75 Kurume · ~Carpet |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/05 | Dalayna Hewitt W75 Kurume · ~Carpet |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Mary Stoiana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Harmony Tan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Peyton Stearns WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Julieta Pareja W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Anna Rogers W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katie Swan vs Mary Stoiana?
Our model gives 55% to Mary Stoiana, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.