Tennis · US Open Women · 26/08, 21:30
Prediction: Martyna Kubka vs Marina Bassols Ribera
Team pages: Martyna Kubka · Marina Bassols Ribera
Prediction summary
Winner
Martyna Kubka
Marina Bassols Ribera
Estimated games
22.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martyna Kubka
5-5 (W-L)
Marina Bassols Ribera
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martyna Kubka 1573 · Marina Bassols Ribera 1477
| Martyna Kubka | Marina Bassols Ribera | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martyna Kubka (rating 1573 vs 1477).
- Martyna Kubka dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Martyna Kubka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Marina Bassols Ribera makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Martyna Kubka | Marina Bassols Ribera | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-10.2 | 10.5-11.2 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 59.4% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 59.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martyna Kubka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Annika Penickova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Mona Barthel WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Teodora Kostovic WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Kira Pavlova W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Han Shi W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Chloe Noel W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Jimena Gomez W75 Vitoria Gasteiz |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/07 | Valentina Ryser W35 Don Benito |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Anastasia Bertacchi W35 Don Benito |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Marina Bassols Ribera
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Darya Astakhova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/08 | Sinja Kraus WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Maria Lourdes Carle WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Arantxa Rus WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Anna-Lena Friedsam WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martyna Kubka vs Marina Bassols Ribera?
Our model gives 54% to Martyna Kubka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.