Prediction: Kei Nishikori vs Michael Antonius
Team pages: Kei Nishikori · Michael Antonius
Prediction summary
Winner
Kei Nishikori
Michael Antonius
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kei Nishikori
5-5 (W-L)
Michael Antonius
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kei Nishikori 1498 · Michael Antonius 1559
| Kei Nishikori | Michael Antonius | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Michael Antonius (rating 1498 vs 1559).
- Michael Antonius is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Kei Nishikori | Michael Antonius | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.2 | 11.8-6.8 |
| Aces | 2 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 33.1% | 52% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.7
Over 23.5: 39% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 61% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kei Nishikori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Sebastian Ofner US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Francisco Comesana ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Michael Antonius
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Henry Searle US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/07 | Tristan McCormick M15 Rochester |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Ilyas Milad Fahim M15 Rochester |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Alexander Bernard M15 Rochester |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/07 | Dillon Beckles M15 Rochester |
2-0 | 8-1 | W |
| 15/07 | Jonah Braswell M15 Rochester |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/05 | Andreja Petrovic M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/04 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Evan Bynoe M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/04 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kei Nishikori vs Michael Antonius?
Our model gives 51% to Michael Antonius, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.