Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Braden Shick
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Braden Shick
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Braden Shick
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1492 · Braden Shick 1572
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braden Shick (rating 1492 vs 1572).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.6 | 12.5-10.9 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 70% |
| Break % | 47% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1
Over 23.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 57% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Clement Tabur US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 28/07 | Benjamin Thomas George Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 08/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 52% to Braden Shick, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.