Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Andre Ilagan
Team pages: Hugo Gaston · Andre Ilagan
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Gaston
Andre Ilagan
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Gaston
6-4 (W-L)
Andre Ilagan
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1497 · Andre Ilagan 1587
| Hugo Gaston | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andre Ilagan (rating 1497 vs 1587).
- Andre Ilagan is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.9 | 13-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 57.7% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 50% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 50% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Andre Ilagan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Tristan Boyer US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 09/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Andre Ilagan?
Our model gives 51% to Andre Ilagan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.