Prediction: Henrique Rocha vs Lloyd Harris
Team pages: Henrique Rocha · Lloyd Harris
Prediction summary
Winner
Henrique Rocha
Lloyd Harris
Estimated games
22.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Henrique Rocha
3-7 (W-L)
Lloyd Harris
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henrique Rocha 1482 · Lloyd Harris 1621
| Henrique Rocha | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1482 vs 1621).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 67.5% break avg.
- Lloyd Harris is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Henrique Rocha | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.7 | 13.7-9.6 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 77% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 67.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -0.8
Over 23.5: 45% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 55% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henrique Rocha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Michael Mmoh US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Seong Chan Hong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Lloyd Harris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Bernard Tomic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 23/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Laslo Djere Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 14/08 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 14/08 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henrique Rocha vs Lloyd Harris?
Our model gives 57% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.