Prediction: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller
Team pages: Rei Sakamoto · Alexandre Muller
Prediction summary
Winner
Rei Sakamoto
Alexandre Muller
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rei Sakamoto
5-5 (W-L)
Alexandre Muller
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rei Sakamoto
1–1
Alexandre Muller
(2 last)
- 13 May2-1 15-13W
- 19 Mar0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rei Sakamoto 1544 · Alexandre Muller 1443
| Rei Sakamoto | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1544 vs 1443).
- Rei Sakamoto is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rei Sakamoto | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-12.2 | 9.7-12.6 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 66% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 31.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.90
H2H · Rei Sakamoto 1 – 1 Alexandre Muller (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rei Sakamoto 1–1 Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Challenger Bordeaux | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/03/25 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 07/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Laslo Djere US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 29/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 16/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller?
Our model gives 65% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.