Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · Joel Schwaerzler
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
Joel Schwaerzler
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
5-5 (W-L)
Joel Schwaerzler
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrea Guerrieri
0–1
Joel Schwaerzler
(1 last)
- 09 Aug0-2 7-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1556 · Joel Schwaerzler 1548
| Andrea Guerrieri | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Joel Schwaerzler dominates on serve: 6 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Andrea Guerrieri 0–1 Joel Schwaerzler (1).
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-11.2 | 12.4-12 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 6 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 31.8% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -0.9
Over 23.5: 44% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 56% · 1.83
H2H · Andrea Guerrieri 0 – 1 Joel Schwaerzler (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrea Guerrieri 0–1 Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | August Holmgren US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 07/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Olle Wallin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Luca Nardi ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Gustavo Heide US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 19/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/08 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/08 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 04/08 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler?
Our model gives 54% to Joel Schwaerzler, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.