Tennis · US Open Women · 25/08, 17:00
Prediction: Francisca Jorge vs Mia Ristic
Team pages: Francisca Jorge · Mia Ristic
Prediction summary
Winner
Francisca Jorge
Mia Ristic
Estimated games
20.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francisca Jorge
5-5 (W-L)
Mia Ristic
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francisca Jorge 1520 · Mia Ristic 1639
| Francisca Jorge | Mia Ristic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mia Ristic (rating 1520 vs 1639).
- Mia Ristic is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Francisca Jorge | Mia Ristic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-0.9 | 1.9-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-8.4 | 13.7-10 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 57.8% | 63% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 54.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -2
Over 22.5: 36% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 64% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francisca Jorge
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Yufei Ren W35 Vigo |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Hanna Bougouffa W35 Vigo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Celia Cervino Ruiz W35 Vigo |
1-1 | 2-6 | L |
| 06/08 | Kira Pavlova W75 Ourense |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Zongyu Li W75 Ourense |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Francesca Curmi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Carol Young Suh Lee W50 Corroios-Seixal |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Angelina Voloshchuk W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Kira Pavlova W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mia Ristic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Ayana Akli US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 16/08 | Rositsa Dencheva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Matilde Paoletti W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Lisa Zaar W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Havah Kaur Kaler W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/07 | Laura Samsonova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/07 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Nuria Brancaccio W75 Cordenons |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francisca Jorge vs Mia Ristic?
Our model gives 55% to Mia Ristic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.