Tennis · US Open Women · 25/08, 17:00
Prediction: Madison Brengle vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Team pages: Madison Brengle · Lucrezia Stefanini
Prediction summary
Winner
Madison Brengle
Lucrezia Stefanini
Estimated games
20.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Madison Brengle
6-4 (W-L)
Lucrezia Stefanini
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madison Brengle 1516 · Lucrezia Stefanini 1568
| Madison Brengle | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1516 vs 1568).
Statistics
| Madison Brengle | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-11 | 10.8-8.2 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 52.4% | 57% |
| Break % | 46.5% | 61.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1.2
Over 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madison Brengle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Anastasia Gasanova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Hanne Vandewinkel W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Emerson Jones WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Alexandra Vagramov WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/07 | Yuki Naito W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Greet Minnen WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Kayla Cross WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Ana Sofia Sanchez WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Tatum Evans W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Maya Iyengar W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Lucrezia Stefanini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Ayla Aksu US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/07 | Ayana Akli W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Elizabeth Mandlik W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madison Brengle vs Lucrezia Stefanini?
Our model gives 64% to Lucrezia Stefanini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.