Tennis · US Open Women · 25/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mai Hontama vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Team pages: Mai Hontama · Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Prediction summary
Winner
Mai Hontama
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mai Hontama
6-4 (W-L)
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mai Hontama 1563 · Andrea Lazaro Garcia 1515
| Mai Hontama | Andrea Lazaro Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mai Hontama (rating 1563 vs 1515).
- Note: Andrea Lazaro Garcia makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Mai Hontama | Andrea Lazaro Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-9.9 | 11.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 56.5% | 58.7% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.8
Over 22.5: 44% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 56% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mai Hontama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Lina Gjorcheska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Erika Andreeva W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 31/07 | Maddison Inglis WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Jia-Jing Lu WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Kayla Day WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Diane Parry WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Elina Avanesyan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Aurora Zantedeschi W75 Leipzig |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Chloe Paquet W75 Leipzig |
2-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 31/07 | Laura Pigossi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Nadia Podoroska W100 Gran Canaria |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 28/07 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Alina Korneeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Nuria Brancaccio Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Julia Grabher WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Makarska · Clay |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mai Hontama vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia?
Our model gives 55% to Mai Hontama, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.