Tennis · US Open Women · 25/08, 17:00
Prediction: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda
Team pages: Heather Watson · Angela Fita Boluda
Prediction summary
Winner
Heather Watson
Angela Fita Boluda
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Heather Watson
5-5 (W-L)
Angela Fita Boluda
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heather Watson 1510 · Angela Fita Boluda 1552
| Heather Watson | Angela Fita Boluda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Angela Fita Boluda (rating 1510 vs 1552).
- Heather Watson dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 52% break avg.
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Heather Watson | Angela Fita Boluda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (6) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12 | 11.6-10.2 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 52% | 55.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.3
Over 20.5: 72% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 28% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heather Watson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Claire Liu US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Tatiana Prozorova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Mayar Sherif Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Beatriz Haddad Maia WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Viktoria Hruncakova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Angela Fita Boluda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Lin Zhu US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Aurora Zantedeschi W75 Hechingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Alicia Herrero Linana W100 Amstetten |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Jana Otzipka W100 Amstetten |
1-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Irina Balus W100 Amstetten |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Petra Sedlackova W75 Olomouc |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 16/07 | Aneta Laboutkova W75 Olomouc |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Jule Niemeier W75 Olomouc |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Lisa Pigato WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda?
Our model gives 62% to Heather Watson, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.