Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Luka Pavlovic
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1554 · Luka Pavlovic 1560
| Jacob Fearnley | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 44.9% break avg.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10.3 | 12.2-10.9 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 78.9% |
| Break % | 45.8% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.5
Over 20.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 66% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.