Tennis · US Open Women · 26/08, 17:00
Prediction: Lucia Bronzetti vs Polina Iatcenko
Team pages: Lucia Bronzetti · Polina Iatcenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucia Bronzetti
Polina Iatcenko
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucia Bronzetti
7-3 (W-L)
Polina Iatcenko
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucia Bronzetti 1558 · Polina Iatcenko 1505
| Lucia Bronzetti | Polina Iatcenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Bronzetti (rating 1558 vs 1505).
- Note: Polina Iatcenko makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Lucia Bronzetti | Polina Iatcenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.3 | 10-9.6 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 54.9% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.7
Over 22.5: 38% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 62% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucia Bronzetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Laura Samsonova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 30/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Miriana Tona WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/07 | Fiona Ferro WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Yasmine Kabbaj WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Ilary Pistola WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Nuria Brancaccio WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Polina Iatcenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Julie Struplova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/08 | Claire Liu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Iryna Shymanovich W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Vera Zvonareva WTA Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Zhuoxuan Bai Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Leyre Romero Gormaz Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Martyna Kubka W50 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucia Bronzetti vs Polina Iatcenko?
Our model gives 53% to Lucia Bronzetti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.