Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Cristian Garin
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Cristian Garin
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Cristian Garin
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
3-7 (W-L)
Cristian Garin
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elias Ymer
0–3
Cristian Garin
(3 last)
- 14 May0-2 5-12L
- 28 Jun0-3 12-19L
- 14 Jul0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1477 · Cristian Garin 1483
| Elias Ymer | Cristian Garin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elias Ymer 0–3 Cristian Garin (3).
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Cristian Garin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.3 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-11.6 | 13.8-13.3 |
| Aces | 6 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 32% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 50% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 50% · 1.83
H2H · Elias Ymer 0 – 3 Cristian Garin (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elias Ymer 0–3 Cristian Garin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/25 Challenger Oeiras | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/06/22 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 14/07/14 Challenger Poznan Qual | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Federico Cina Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Niels Visker ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Cristian Garin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Spencer Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Learner Tien French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 8-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Henri Squire ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/05 | Jan Choinski ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 04/05 | Moez Echargui ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/04 | Nuno Borges Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 28/04 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Cristian Garin?
Our model gives 52% to Elias Ymer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.