Prediction: Jay Clarke vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Jay Clarke · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Clarke
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Clarke
8-2 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Clarke 1497 · Rei Sakamoto 1537
| Jay Clarke | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1497 vs 1537).
- Note: Jay Clarke makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Jay Clarke | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12.7 | 13.5-12.1 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 75% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 35.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Clarke
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/07 | Jerome Kym Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Stijn Paardekooper M25 The Hague |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Mac Visser M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/06 | Daniel Masur Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 07/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Jules Leroux Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Clarke vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 65% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.