Tennis · US Open Women · 25/08, 17:00
Prediction: Elvina Kalieva vs Kristina Mladenovic
Team pages: Elvina Kalieva · Kristina Mladenovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Elvina Kalieva
Kristina Mladenovic
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elvina Kalieva
5-5 (W-L)
Kristina Mladenovic
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elvina Kalieva 1499 · Kristina Mladenovic 1442
| Elvina Kalieva | Kristina Mladenovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elvina Kalieva (rating 1499 vs 1442).
- Elvina Kalieva is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Kristina Mladenovic makes many double faults (7.4/match).
Statistics
| Elvina Kalieva | Kristina Mladenovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.6 | 9.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 7.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 58.4% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 55.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +3.6
Over 18.5: 74% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 26% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elvina Kalieva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Kristina Liutova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Peyton Stearns WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Katherine Sebov WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 23/07 | Kayla Cross W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Hayu Kinoshita W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Lea Ma W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Kristina Mladenovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Tiphanie Lemaitre W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Valentina Ryser WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Xiyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Tessa Johanna Brockmann WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/04 | Carmen Andreea Herea Billie Jean King Cup |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/03 | Mary Stoiana WTA Charleston · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 17/02 | Yidi Yang WTA Les Sables d'Olonne · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 13/01 | Chloe Paquet Australian Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/01 | Sinja Kraus WTA Auckland · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 03/01 | Anna-Lena Friedsam WTA Auckland · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elvina Kalieva vs Kristina Mladenovic?
Our model gives 74% to Elvina Kalieva, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.