Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel Milavsky
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Daniel Milavsky
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Daniel Milavsky
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Daniel Milavsky
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1496 · Daniel Milavsky 1576
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Daniel Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Milavsky (rating 1496 vs 1576).
- Daniel Milavsky dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Daniel Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.6 | 12.9-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.5% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 49.8% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Daniel Milavsky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 30/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel Milavsky?
Our model gives 51% to Daniel Milavsky, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.