Prediction: Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori
Team pages: Sebastian Ofner · Kei Nishikori
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Ofner
Kei Nishikori
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Ofner
4-6 (W-L)
Kei Nishikori
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Ofner
1–0
Kei Nishikori
(1 last)
- 21 Mar2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Ofner 1444 · Kei Nishikori 1469
| Sebastian Ofner | Kei Nishikori | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Ofner 1–0 Kei Nishikori (1).
- Note: Sebastian Ofner makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Ofner | Kei Nishikori | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (3) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.9 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-14.2 | 10.9-12.6 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 38.1% | 34.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Sebastian Ofner 1 – 0 Kei Nishikori (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Ofner 1–0 Kei Nishikori
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/24 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Kei Nishikori
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Francisco Comesana ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori?
Our model gives 57% to Kei Nishikori, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.