Prediction: Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Team pages: Alex Bolt · Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Bolt
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Bolt
3-7 (W-L)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Bolt
1–1
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
(2 last)
- 19 May1-2 15-17L
- 31 Dec2-1 18-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Bolt 1455 · Pablo Llamas Ruiz 1492
| Alex Bolt | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alex Bolt | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-12.7 | 12.2-12.9 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 19.4% | 33.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 53% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 47% · 1.80
H2H · Alex Bolt 1 – 1 Pablo Llamas Ruiz (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Bolt 1–1 Pablo Llamas Ruiz
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/25 French Open | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 31/12/23 Challenger Canberra | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Bolt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Jamie Mackenzie ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 02/06 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/05 | Lukas Neumayer French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-26 | L |
| 24/06 | Pol Martin Tiffon Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Dan Added Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz?
Our model gives 57% to Pablo Llamas Ruiz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.