Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Nicolas Mejia · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
5-5 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
1–1
Liam Draxl
(2 last)
- 27 Apr2-1 15-14W
- 24 Jan0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1504 · Liam Draxl 1524
| Nicolas Mejia | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-12.1 | 11.4-10 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 71% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.90
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 1 – 1 Liam Draxl (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 1–1 Liam Draxl
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/25 Challenger Savannah | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 24/01/25 Challenger Oeiras | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Liam Draxl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 54% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.