Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Roberto Carballes Baena
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Roberto Carballes Baena
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Roberto Carballes Baena
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jacob Fearnley
1–0
Roberto Carballes Baena
(1 last)
- 14 Apr2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1559 · Roberto Carballes Baena 1505
| Jacob Fearnley | Roberto Carballes Baena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1559 vs 1505).
- Head-to-head: Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Roberto Carballes Baena (1).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Roberto Carballes Baena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.9 | 11.6-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2
Over 20.5: 64% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 36% · 1.80
H2H · Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Roberto Carballes Baena (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Roberto Carballes Baena
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/25 ATP Barcelona | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Roberto Carballes Baena
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Max Houkes Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Marc-Andrea Huesler Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Ceban Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena?
Our model gives 71% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.