Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 21:30
Prediction: Gabriela Knutson vs Varvara Lepchenko
Team pages: Gabriela Knutson · Varvara Lepchenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriela Knutson
Varvara Lepchenko
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriela Knutson
7-3 (W-L)
Varvara Lepchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriela Knutson 1544 · Varvara Lepchenko 1442
| Gabriela Knutson | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriela Knutson (rating 1544 vs 1442).
- Gabriela Knutson is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Gabriela Knutson makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Gabriela Knutson | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.9 | 12.2-13.2 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 60.9% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 48% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 52% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriela Knutson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Ella Seidel WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Sofia Costoulas WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Shuai Zhang WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 19/07 | Dominika Salkova WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Aoi Ito WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Varvara Lepchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Emerson Jones WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 25/07 | Clervie Ngounoue WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Anna Petkovic WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clara Burel WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Maia Ilinca Burcescu WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriela Knutson vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Our model gives 61% to Gabriela Knutson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.