Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 23:00
Prediction: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Katarzyna Kawa
Team pages: Ekaterine Gorgodze · Katarzyna Kawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Katarzyna Kawa
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ekaterine Gorgodze
8-2 (W-L)
Katarzyna Kawa
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ekaterine Gorgodze 1591 · Katarzyna Kawa 1480
| Ekaterine Gorgodze | Katarzyna Kawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterine Gorgodze (rating 1591 vs 1480).
- Ekaterine Gorgodze is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Katarzyna Kawa makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Ekaterine Gorgodze | Katarzyna Kawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.1 | 11.3-12.1 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 0.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.1% | 61.6% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Hanne Vandewinkel W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/08 | Ekaterina Ovcharenko W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Xiaodi You W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/07 | Yasmine Kabbaj WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 12/07 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 7-0 | W |
| 11/07 | Teodora Kostovic W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Julia Riera W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Valentina Steiner W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Katarzyna Kawa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Eva Lys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Warsaw · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 03/08 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Lucrezia Stefanini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Susan Bandecchi Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Katarzyna Kawa?
Our model gives 51% to Ekaterine Gorgodze, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.