Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 17:00
Prediction: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro
Team pages: Rebecca Marino · Fiona Ferro
Prediction summary
Winner
Rebecca Marino
Fiona Ferro
Estimated games
20.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rebecca Marino
5-5 (W-L)
Fiona Ferro
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rebecca Marino 1499 · Fiona Ferro 1568
| Rebecca Marino | Fiona Ferro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fiona Ferro (rating 1499 vs 1568).
- Rebecca Marino dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 41% break avg.
- Fiona Ferro is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rebecca Marino | Fiona Ferro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-9.6 | 12.5-7.5 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 41% | 61.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -0.8
Over 21.5: 44% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 56% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rebecca Marino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Alina Charaeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Kayla Cross W75 Granby |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/07 | Kylie Collins W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Mei Yamaguchi W75 Granby |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Julieta Pareja W50 Columbus |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Luciana Perry W50 Columbus |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Audrey Spencer W50 Columbus |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Kira Matushkina W50 Columbus |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/09 | Tatjana Maria WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Fiona Ferro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Barbora Palicova W75 Hechingen |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/08 | Eva Bennemann W75 Hechingen |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Tessa Johanna Brockmann W75 Hechingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Noemi Basiletti W75 Hechingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Sapfo Sakellaridi W75 Hechingen |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 25/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mina Hodzic WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/07 | Erika Andreeva WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Yufei Ren WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro?
Our model gives 59% to Fiona Ferro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.