Prediction: Colton Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino
Team pages: Colton Smith · Andrea Pellegrino
Prediction summary
Winner
Colton Smith
Andrea Pellegrino
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Andrea Pellegrino
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colton Smith 1464 · Andrea Pellegrino 1490
| Colton Smith | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Colton Smith makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Colton Smith | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-14.8 | 11.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 50.9% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 48% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 52% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 24/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andy Andrade Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colton Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino?
Our model gives 54% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.