Tennis · US Open Women · 25/08, 17:00
Prediction: Harmony Tan vs Mary Stoiana
Team pages: Harmony Tan · Mary Stoiana
Prediction summary
Winner
Harmony Tan
Mary Stoiana
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Harmony Tan
6-4 (W-L)
Mary Stoiana
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Harmony Tan 1565 · Mary Stoiana 1519
| Harmony Tan | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harmony Tan (rating 1565 vs 1519).
- Harmony Tan is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Mary Stoiana makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Harmony Tan | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (8) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-9.5 | 12.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 65.1% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.9
Over 21.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 37% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Harmony Tan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Anastasia Gasanova WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/07 | Lucie Havlickova WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Esther Adeshina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Mia Pohankova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Celine Naef WTA Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Taylah Preston WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/06 | Emily Appleton WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/06 | Amelia Rajecki WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Mary Stoiana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Peyton Stearns WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Julieta Pareja W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Anna Rogers W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Harmony Tan vs Mary Stoiana?
Our model gives 59% to Mary Stoiana, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.